Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2008 7:52 am Posts: 1184 Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Honestly, the villain's line reads really bluffy to me. He raised preflop from fairly late position and got a call from you either on the button or in the cutoff. He made a small continuation bet on a dry and safe board. Then when you called on the flop, he shut down on the turn. Once you checked back on the turn, he probably put you on 2 big cards and fired at the river hoping that you missed and would fold.
I seriously discount a set or or the A-4 for a straight is going to miss a street of value by checking when the hits, particularly since it puts a flush draw up and would likely get a call from a hand like or that might have floated his small C-bet on the flop and that he now wants to charge for the draw. So, I think you're looking at either a pure bluff or another Q trying to represent a bluff by firing big on the river with top pair. In either case, my read would lead me to hero call because I think I'm way ahead of the villain's range.
To answer your question about the turn, once the villain made the small C-bet and then checked the turn, I think you need to fire a bet; I'd go something like 3 or 4 times his flop bet and take the free money that he's giving away in that spot. That kind of play is why you float a small C-bet on the flop when you've got no draws besides your overcards.
_________________ The opinions in this post are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Poker Atlas, AVP or PokerTrip Enterprises.
Smells like A4 to me, V may be giving up value on the turn and giving a free card to a possible flush but he may be trying to set up a river bet that looks like a bluff that may get called...hence giving up the value on the turn for the possibility of a much bigger payoff on the river. Massive overbet on the river is typically the nuts or pure bluff (46s is possible given he was first one in the pot and the weak cbet). I think you hit the nail on the head that the key to the hand would have been to fire on the turn and you would have a much better idea of where you stand if it gets to the river.
_________________ Sun-tzu: If your enemy is superior, evade him. If angry, irritate him. If equally matched, fight and if not split and reevaluate. -Bud Fox
I am going to look at this from V's point of view. To bet 84,000 into a 13,800(?) pot on a bluff when he hasn't played many hands with you and presumably has no idea of your style would make him an idiot. Doubly so because he would be knocked out of the tournament ( I don't know the prize structure or how far the tournament has progressed, but applying ICM theory would suggest those last few chips of his would be pretty valuable).
Betting 84,000 on a strong hand in similar circumstances would most probably be sub-optimal, but may make him less of an idiot.
Though you don't mention the structure of the tournament, I am assuming from your stack sizes and the blinds that there is currently no particular urgency in the game for either of you. I would fold and wave goodbye to those 6,000 chips and look for a better spot once I'd got a better read. Again, by ICM 6,000 its not the greatest hit on a 90,000 stack.
And I would be hoping that he had been bluffing. That would mean I would be playing against an idiot.