Why does this show 77 as a 77+% favorite after the turn?

denimmined · **Joined:** Fri Apr 06, 2007 7:48 pm **Posts:** 49

Ok, here's a hand that I am confused by. Both Carbon Poker & Pokerstove have this hand as a favorite, and I don't understand why.

[Jd]

vs

Obviously, JJ is ahead 80.9 to 19.1 preflop

Flop is [Ac]

And now JJ is ahead 72.475 to 27.525

Turn is [2c]

Now Both of those say that 77 is a 77.273 to 22.727 favorite. Besides the 9 clubs that remain, what are 77's other outs to give it 34 wins? (That's pokerstove's numbers, not mine!)

Note: The river filled me up with the JJ.

Turns out I was a moron... nevermind this question....

harbak · **Joined:** Fri Nov 04, 2011 1:33 pm **Posts:** 46

U were behind, not him. He is the winner unless u suck out. For u to win u have 10 outs @ river, for percent at river = outs x 2 + 2 seems perfect to me. If u only have a 22.7 chance of winning that leaves 77 for him, right?

zzyzx · **Posted:** Thu Dec 29, 2011 4:54 pm

you only have 10 outs holding JJ
3 A's
3 Q's
3 2's
1 J

that leaves 34 remaining cards which beat you on the river.
52-8-10=34

Local Rock · **Posted:** Thu Dec 29, 2011 5:59 pm

denimmined wrote:

...what are 77's other outs to give it...

Methinks you must be missing the fact that he has made a flush, right now on the turn, and isn't drawing to anything against JJ's flopped set. He doesn't need outs; 7c7x is good right now and wins unless you boat up or river quads.

Everybody misreads a board sometime, and this was apparently your time to do that.

denimmined · **Joined:** Fri Apr 06, 2007 7:48 pm **Posts:** 49

yeah.... turns out I'm a moron and missed the flush... I ran it several times in my head... I don't know what I was thinking... must be nap time.

celavey · **Joined:** Mon Jan 02, 2012 1:25 am **Posts:** 22

You can't simply just predict what card will show next. Even if you think you have the perfect combination from the start, there is a possibility that you will lose.

Why does this show 77 as a 77+% favorite after the turn?

Who is online