The issue with this hand IMO is a loose player checking that flop. A loose player RARELY ever checks that flop, and they're betting irregardless of what they actually hold. A typical loose player's mistake in a 1-2 game is to check their VERY strong hands, and I suspect this is one of those occasions. When a LAG checks this particular flop, I get very suspicious.
I don't put V on 77 like Krusherlaw thinks......I think V bets the flop almost 100% of the time there. I put V on AT-QT or a pocket pair of threes and flopped the full house. There I can see a loose player checking behind to try and allow Hero to catch a card and give some action. (Even though V should bet to balance their C-betting with nothing) If V has AT or 33, he's dodging 3 outs at the most on the turn.
I don't like Hero's turn play at all.....his action screams "I HAVE A TEN" and V is still going all in anyway. Hero needs to call $168 to see a pot that has about $270 in it, for pot odds of about 1.6 to 1. Hero needs to win 38% of the time to break even. If Hero is behind 33, he has 7 outs to win and if Hero is behind AT-QT, Hero has 3 outs to win and 6 outs to chop. So Hero gets about 10% equity here. If V has 89 of spades, you're dodging 11 outs and V will win about 22% of the time. You need to be ahead more than 50% of the time here to make this a marginal call. I don't see it in a 1-2 game.
Hero should make a painful fold. He should have just called the raise and check-call the river depending on the river card. Reopening the betting set himself up to have to make a decision for all his chips. From a typical 1-2 player, checking that flop and then raising a turn bet usually signals a very strong hand, and while Hero has a very good hand, it's wasn't one where I would want to get all my chips involved.
Villain must have thought hero was good enough to lay down a 10 -- or villain is just a terrible player. Either way, villain is terrible, because basically nobody at 1/2 could lay down a 10 there, and hero obviously had one;)
^^^^I was one of them, although not exactly bc I would have just called the turn raise and check called the river bet. Min re raising the turn was the problem our hero got into this hand.
Also, results aside, remember, don't think with ROT (results oriented thinking- read my strategy article on this if you're confused) that based on the action, folding may still have been correct vs a majority of opponents based on the info we have on them.
Joined: Mon Jul 10, 2006 11:16 am Posts: 3914 Location: Manassas, VA
Villain failed to react properly to Law #67 of poker.
Law #67 - fear the minraise post flop!
it is so funny. I swear I see this all time where villains minraise on the flop or turn. it always seems to be a huge hand and rarely seems to be a draw or feeler bet.
THere's a corollary I've seen lately online (at least in the DONS I play). Fear the small 3bet raise preflop. This seems to be AAs so often it makes me sick. Recently I had KK in the SB and raised a 10/20 blind pot over two limpers to 120. BB then minraises to 220. everybody folds. I stare at the screen thinking "Here come the AAs." I tell myself to fold. My right hand fails to hear my thoughts and clicks all in instead. Villain calls with AAs. I swear I see this on almost a nightly basis (not KK vs AA but AA minraising an open raise preflop). I notice it because people like to flash their AA even when everybody folds.
fear the minraise.
<end hijack>
_________________ - pls excuse my typos... I'm prob on my iPhone
Joined: Wed May 25, 2011 12:57 am Posts: 304 Location: Finland
BentonBlakeman wrote:
Also, results aside, remember, don't think with ROT (results oriented thinking- read my strategy article on this if you're confused) that based on the action, folding may still have been correct vs a majority of opponents based on the info we have on them.
I wasn't commenting whether folding is the right play or not, I was just saying that if villain gets a correct read on us (about the level of thinking we're at), then turning a medium value showdown hand (AK) into a bluff isn't such a horrible play. IMO. If he knows that we'll be able to lay down a ten.
What hands would you 3bet/call for value (on the turn)? 77,33,AT? And balance that with some air combos? I know balancing isn't necessary usually at 1/2 table, but let's take this as an academic question.
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