I am back home now so I won't be sending quite as many hand histories, but this was another interesting one I thought. I will post a trip report as soon as I get back to sleeping on a normal schedule, Vegas screwed me up big time!
We are 7 handed playing 1/2. V1 is a "local pro". He made a point of telling us that numerous times. He also is a laggy luckbox who can't fold when he is smoked. I've watched him make bad call and after bad call and run his stack up. I do not have much respect for his game. V2 seems pretty nitty to me. The only 3 times I've seen V2 put any money in the pot are with flopping the nut straight, flopping a set and flopping top 2. V2 also moaned about his bad luck that he folded an open end straight for $25 in a $75 pot on the flop after it hit the turn. Seems super nitty to me.
Action is as follows: V1 limps UTG, his range is pretty much any 2 suited cards, any pair, any suited ace, any connected cards. V2 limps on the button. I would figure about the same range given the action. I am in the SB with . I decide to raise to $15. Both limpers come along.
Flop is . I lead for $35. V1 calls quickly, V2 thinks and then calls. This could be hearts, any ace, or 66 from either of them. I am discounting 66 from V2 as I think he would have raised a set here. I think 2 pair raises me here as well.
Pot size- $150
Turn is a . Normally I lead out here and build a pot, but given V1's previous play, I decide to check as he has never checked behind when checked to in about 3 hours of playing with him. My thought process was to trap V1 and possibly get some dead money in from V2 who I do not think will call on a draw if I overshove. V1 did not disappoint and lead out for $50. This is where I get confused. V2 insta shoves for about $200 more. V2 has always bet the goods. I am having trouble thinking V2 called a near pot sized bet with a gut shot on the flop given previous action, so I am discounting J10. V2 also seems sort of timid, so 66 seems confusing to me too as he would be trying to push out flush draws OTF and I think he would have raised. My range screams to have hit this flop also, so I also think a set is raising me here to try to get it all in. KQ seems possible also. Did I try to play this too fancy with the turn check? Was leading a better play in this spot?
Although it seems unlikely given that cards already known to be out there, but I think V2 is holding K-Q or 6-6. The next most likely hand is A-Q. A nitty player does not call for $15 with A-6, so I would put that out of his range. I guess I am having trouble seeing a nit NOT raise with A-K on the button, so I would put that in his range but discount it some.
As played, I would call the nit's all in on the turn. We are beating or tying enough of his range (K-Q, A-Q, A-K) to warrant a call. There is no way he called $25 chasing an inside straight unless he had the 10-J of Hearts. It does stink to have Local Pro still yet to act. If he were to call also, I would like my hand less. But we don't have that luxury and we are ahead or tie of every one of the nits hand but 6-6. For that reason, I can't find a fold in this big pot.
I'm not thinking about pure math here, just probability through the madness. Looking at where you're taking it: JT or 66; lesser probability AA KK QQ Looking at where you're giving it: KQ or lesser probability AQ or AK (due to limp) 66 is iffy vs that scary flop, a straight lead or check raise would be preferable ( I would mostly straight lead with set, with the level of today's players, obvious is the new tricky)
The ONLY hand that you can see that makes sense given the action on all 3 streets is JhTh. Or a bluff.
But....things don't always make sense!
Hope it worked out for you, I'm curious to know how it ended up
Some people do limp with that. And call a raise. And call a cbet with a second pair. And go nuts after turning 2p on a draw-heavy board.[/quote]
Very true. KQ is possible, but he would have to overcall V1 on the flop, which in a normal game to a normal player would tell him 2nd pair isn't likely to be good. I have seen worse calls though and i wouldn't discredit anything by anyone.
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2011 8:52 am Posts: 36 Location: New Brunswick, Canada
Benton has been teaching us not to look at individual hands in a Vacuum. You are out of position and have a huge draw heavy board.
It's hard to put these guys on ranges of hands when your out of position. You have no information other than they called your initial preflop raise. You lead out and both called, they obv have something, then you checked showing weakness to them. You have no other option now to fold, you have no idea were you are at and probably facing a raise or re-raise on the river.
I think you should have just limped in with A K out of position kept the pot small and play it that way.
A K is still a drawing hand and very hard to play out of position with two callers.