Does anyone know expected ROI %s for winning and average players for buy-ins of $30 to $225 where the house takes 25% for juice? ...I read that ROI %s increase by 25% for every hour it takes the chip leader to reach 15bb for top players, what do you think of this formula? (2hr into tourney ROI = 50%, 4hr = 100%, etc..) Do you agree with it, is there another way of looking at this concept?

I like the question.

Let me answer the easy bit. The ROI for average players where there is 25% juice is ... minus 25%, less tips.

As for the best players, then yes in theory the slower the tournament then the larger the expected return. But the other important point is the skill of the player pool - the average ability of players in a $225 slow tournament is likely significantly better than those entering a $30 shove-fest.

Solid points axb,

I wish there was a set in stone magic formula and not so much guesswork.

With all of the shove-fests around Vegas, shopping for the right tournaments to play becomes difficult as I believe there are only a couple of daily tourneys under $80 that have +ROI structures after juice;

Mirage, GVR, and Orleans

IMO, if a casino is going to take out more than 20% juice then 2 1/2 hrs into the tourney whatever level (8-20m blinds, 6-30m blinds) should have the BB no higher than 1200, when original chip stacks are 3k-7k

For rooms, whose BB > 1200 after 2 1/2 hrs, adding 1 more lower tier level to the structure should generate increased business and offset the cost of labor for the extra 20-30 minutes. Even if the trade-off is break even, your room will have more business for cash games and other tourneys making it +EV for the room while doing players a favor.

(For the rooms whose tournaments use a 15min blind structure, yeah this does not apply to you, as your daily tourneys need complete restructuring; if you are offering 15min blinds and 20%+ juice then there is a problem)