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Evaluation my thought process...



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King Kashue
 Post subject: Evaluation my thought process...
PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 1:59 am 
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Tournament game, blinds 300/600 (about 1.5 hours in). 8 players currently left, Hero is in BB with about 2100 behind (not counting BB). V1 is button+1 with 1600ish, V2 is OTB with 3600ish.

V1 limps, V2 calls, SB folds, Hero checks with 94o.

Flop comes KKA and it checks around.

Turn comes a 4, V1 shoves his last 1000 or so, V2 calls. My reads are that V1 limped with a tiny pair or suited connectors (he can be a bit on the loose and passive side, pre-flop, even short stacked), and is now bluffing at the pot (I figure with any decent pair or big drawing hand he shoves preflop given his stack size). I'm also figuring that V2 is calling with very little to nothing (making the same read on V1 as I am) and is hoping he's ahead with air (we play with bounties for eliminating players from the tourney). My thought is that if V2 had a decent hand, he'd shove to get me out (also that he wouldn't have limped with a strong hand, nor checked the flop with an A, since he's a very aggressive player).

My plan is to call V2's bet and then stop and go the river to get him to fold.

Basically, I'm putting V1 on air worse than KK-44-A and that V2 is making the same read.

River comes a 9 and I shove my last 1000 or so.

If this wasn't a limped pot, no way I make these reads. Two questions though:

Even given the limping, am I still crazy to put both guys on nothing or is it reasonable to assume a bluff and V2 calling the bluff? (that's obviously the sticky part, since calling the bluff with me still in the hand would be a squiffy move). Should I be putting this guy on a slow played K? (that's my big concern). Edit: Worst case, other than the K, I'm figuring my 4s are good enough to actually beat V1 and that the stop and go will be enough to convince V2 he's beaten (even if he's actually got me) and he'll fold.

Two, is the stop and go the best option I've got? If I fold, I've got an M of like 2.5 at a 7 person table (assuming V1 is eliminated), so I'm thinking that getting V2 to fold and hoping Kings and 4s beat V1 is my best option with as crippled as my stack is.


Basically, is my plan ballsy or crazy? :mrgreen:


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Pokerdogg
 Post subject: Re: Evaluation my thought process...
PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:22 am 
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I think it's crazy. If button folds, I can see a call to catch a bluff, but I don't think you are ahead of 2 people enough times to make this a profitable call. There is also the river card, that either of them can catch to make a bigger 2 pairs than you, or an ace can come to counterfit your 9 high kicker. This is a clear fold in my mind.

One thing to keep in mind, a limped pot with high blinds and short stacks, you have to worry about first limper limping with monsters. Most people would shove with any decent cards, but sometimes they would limp with big pairs hoping for someone to do the shove for them. It actually worries me when a decent player open limps with <10 BB late in a tourny.


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larfingravy
 Post subject: Re: Evaluation my thought process...
PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:14 am 
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With blinds at 300/600 you having 2100, V1 1600 and V2 3600 you don't have any space to over analyse hands and start thinking about advanced play.
Once you call V2's turn bet, that leaves you with 1500. Do you really think you will put off V2?

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jjmaximum
 Post subject: Re: Evaluation my thought process...
PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:23 am 
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With those stack sizes, you either shove PF and take the pot or fold on the turn. Even if your 4 is best, you likely have to dodge 12 overcards pairing either V. It is also possible you have could have kicker trouble with 9-4.

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King Kashue
 Post subject: Re: Evaluation my thought process...
PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 12:16 pm 
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Pokerdogg wrote:
There is also the river card, that either of them can catch to make a bigger 2 pairs than you, or an ace can come to counterfit your 9 high kicker.


I don't have a 9 kicker. After the turn, the 9 isn't playing. The hand is Ks & 4s, Ace kicker.

larfingravy wrote:
Once you call V2's turn bet, that leaves you with 1500. Do you really think you will put off V2?


It's not the bet size in comparison to the pot that's the motivation to fold, it's the fold equity and his stack size. If I shove the turn over top of him, he's going to snap call. If V2 has a hand, I'm screwed, period. However, if he doesn't, he can't call even half his stack on the river if he doesn't think he's got the winner. There's no pot odds for another card.

As for whether the bet will put V2 off, that's what I'm asking. River bet, what do you need to call with half of your remaining stack?

jjmaximum wrote:
With those stack sizes, you either shove PF and take the pot or fold on the turn.


I'm not shoving with 94o (if it could scare away the Vs, maybe, but it won't). Even if I've got less than the SB left and will be all-in on that, I'd prefer those two randoms to 94o.

I'm seeing the flop for free and I saw the turn for free. I've got two unders to the board on the flop, first to act in a limped pot, so I'm obviously not bluffing that. I make a pair (for two pair, counting the board) on the turn, which is a medium to low value hand, but it's also not something I can bluff at unless I'm going to try and represent trips (which is an option, but not one I'm thinking would work).

Quote:
It is also possible you have could have kicker trouble with 9-4.


Again, there is no kicker issue unless someone's paired the ace, since the ace is going to be everyone's kicker. Once I pair the turn, my nine doesn't play.


Maybe a different way to ask the question is: If you don't know my hand, and you're V2, what do you need to put in half of your remaining stack on the river? What hand are you calling with?

Like I said, I'm thinking I've got V1 beat (which may or may not be true, obviously) but I'm not planning to make a hand against V2, I'm planning to make him call against all the hands I might have that he can't beat. I'm not asking people to evaluate my read on V1, I'm asking people to evaluate my read and play on V2 (with the premise that my read on V1 is correct).

I know my read on V1 is potentially risky, and I knew my odds (correctly this time :oops: ), what I want to know is if my expectation that this play works against a good player is reasonable. Put yourself in V2's chair and tell me with what hand are you calling half your remaining stack when you've got a board of KKA49 in an limped pot (i.e., are you calling without an Ace? Even with a single weak Ace? etc.)


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AdRock
 Post subject: Re: Evaluation my thought process...
PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 1:46 pm 
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Haven't read other replies.

First off, these players are just terrible so I'm not sure you can put them on a hand. V1 limps for 1/3 - 1/2 of his stack?!? Even if he doesn't understand M and that his is less than 3, it's a terrible play. Likewise V2 calls on the button with an M of 4. With a stronger hand than 94o, I'd shove pre-flop and take my chances, but I'd check this garbage and hope to get lucky.

I think your turn play and thought process are both wrong, to be kind. On the turn, your read on V1 may be right that he's taking a total stab. He may also be bluffing with the best hand -- any pocket pair larger than fours. There's some chance he has a king or weak ace. OK, let's say you've SEEN V1's cards and know he has 8-high. There's still V2 to worry about. V1 may be bluffing but V2 has to beat a bluff. I doubt he's calling with queen-high. You have to give a lot of consideration to him having an ace or king, especially since you can have any two cards and could be planning to call/shove. He has your pair of 4s beaten 90% of the time. If V2 folds, I think calling is fine.

Then there's the "stop and go" plan. If you call, there's 4800 in the pot. Your bet of 1000 gives V2 almost 6:1 to call and the chance for two bounties. He called the turn with something. Unless the river is an ace and counterfeits V2's two pair, it's pretty hard to fold here. If he has an ace or king, he's never folding. And even if he folds, your pair of fours might not beat V1. (I realize on the river you improved to a pair of nines, but you don't know that's going to happen when you plan the stop and go.) Quite often here, you're bluffing off your stack drawing dead.

King Kashue wrote:
Put yourself in V2's chair and tell me with what hand are you calling half your remaining stack when you've got a board of KKA49 in an limped pot (i.e., are you calling without an Ace? Even with a single weak Ace? etc.)

This is really hard because there are no hands that I'd limp on the button. I can't fathom how V2 thinks because he isn't much of a poker player. But if I try. I call with any K, 99, and 44 for sure (duh). I call with any ace. I'd call with QQ, JJ, TT. The problem isn't calling 1/2 my remaining stack, it's that I've already put half my stack in and can't fold now. In fact given that, the only hands I'd smooth call the turn rather than shoving are when I'm trapping with Kx, AQ, and 44.

Curious to find out how this worked.

Edit to add:
I stand by what I wrote above, but I over analyzed the situation. You're playing against players with 2.5-6 BB and M 2-4 who limped pre-flop. Expecting these players to behave in a certain way or to think about stack sizes or what you might have is giving them too much credit. While we can argue the merits of V2 calling with something like 77, I suspect with a AKK board, he wouldn't think about it and just toss it. I suspect to see Kx or Ax most of the time here.

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King Kashue
 Post subject: Re: Evaluation my thought process...
PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 6:16 pm 
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AdRock wrote:
Haven't read other replies.

First off, these players are just terrible so I'm not sure you can put them on a hand.


Well, our tournament comes at the end of the night after hours of cash game. There tends to be some intentionally squiffy play just to throw people off (same folks every game, know each other really well), so I wouldn't judge them by this one hand. Every player is profitable at 2/5 NL (that's Los Angeles 2/5 though, not Vegas) and several at 5/10. There's a decent amount of weirdness that comes out of the "Well, player 1 knows I normally would do play A in this situation, so he's probably expecting me to conceal it with play B, so instead I'll do play C to really throw him off." approach. :mrgreen:

Quote:
V1 limps for 1/3 - 1/2 of his stack?!? Even if he doesn't understand M and that his is less than 3, it's a terrible play.


My assumption is that he was himself pulling a stop and go (since a pre-flop shove is likely to get two calls, one with cards and one priced in) but decided to delay it until the turn because of the nature of the flop.

Quote:
Likewise V2 calls on the button with an M of 4.


Yeah, that was one of the plays I questioned in retrospect. Some of the play by that point was unusual since we're usually down to 4-5 players by that point, max, and we still had 8, so everyone's M sucked.

Quote:
With a stronger hand than 94o, I'd shove pre-flop and take my chances, but I'd check this garbage and hope to get lucky.


Yep.

Quote:
He has your pair of 4s beaten 90% of the time.


With V2, I'm not assuming I'm beating him.

Quote:
If he has an ace or king, he's never folding.


Obviously he's not folding a K (if he's got a king, which is a possibility, I'm obviously dead as a doornail), but you're not folding with A2 or A3?

Quote:
I call with any K, 99, and 44 for sure (duh). I call with any ace. I'd call with QQ, JJ, TT. The problem isn't calling 1/2 my remaining stack, it's that I've already put half my stack in and can't fold now. In fact given that, the only hands I'd smooth call the turn rather than shoving are when I'm trapping with Kx, AQ, and 44.


And my assumption is that with nearly every hand you mention is a hand he would have raised on the button. I still don't know why he didn't (no matter what he had, I'd figure raise or fold); he wasn't exactly himself last night :lol:

Though I'm still wondering about calling with A2 or A3 (and once the river rolls around, anything lower than A9). If you're currently in for 2/5 of your pre-hand stack, you're going to call 1/2 of what's left with a 4 board+ace hand? Maybe. If I've got that, unless I'm putting the other guy on the precise move I'm trying to pull (which has got to be hard to do, since I'm risking my whole stack) I'm figuring I'm chopping at best (with another ace) or behind a K. Yeah, TT or better or AT or better, I'm expecting a call (but again, with those, I figure there's a pre-flop raise and I'm not even in the hand to begin with).


Maybe it was a crazy play, I'm okay with the occasional crazy play. Alternating between TAG value and LAG+C-bet bullying can get a bit boring at times. Am I pulling this at 2/5 at Hollywood Park? Hell no! Against players I know very well, who aren't necessarily expecting this sort of thing from me but know full well how I'm "supposed" to be playing?...Well, I did try it, so yeah. :mrgreen:


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Pokerdogg
 Post subject: Re: Evaluation my thought process...
PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:45 pm 
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King Kashue wrote:
... Am I pulling this at 2/5 at Hollywood Park? Hell no! Against players I know very well, who aren't necessarily expecting this sort of thing from me but know full well how I'm "supposed" to be playing?...Well, I did try it, so yeah. :mrgreen:


Had no idea you knew anything about these players, let alone it is a regular home game and you knew them very well. I am not sure what is the point of your original post, if you hide this important fact.

I still stand by my assessment though, bad move.


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King Kashue
 Post subject: Re: Evaluation my thought process...
PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:12 am 
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Pokerdogg wrote:
Had no idea you knew anything about these players, let alone it is a regular home game and you knew them very well. I am not sure what is the point of your original post, if you hide this important fact.


Sorry, 1am post after 7 hours of play... I honestly would have sworn I referred to this as my home tournament, my bad :oops:


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AdRock
 Post subject: Re: Evaluation my thought process...
PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 9:33 am 
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Did you say what happened?

If this is your regular home game, I'll lean a bit more towards FPS (Fancy Play Syndrome) than idiotic play, but still this is poor tournament play.

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