Expand heres the results of the notebook experiment on the VBJ machine, the good paying one at binions. Since it shuffles every hand anyway, i decided to flat bet $3 every hand til i got $2400 in total bets in for the daily spins, 5 hands at a time so it would happen faster. wow did that feel like really hard work, and it seemed to be taking FOREVER. and i got up about $150 about 1 4th of the way through, and wanted to quit, but couldnt because i was doing an experiment. was a little shocked because i thought flat betting the min would end all positive variance, and i couldnt see how i could be ahead flat betting (why i never flat bet). and i was afraid id lose back all. and by the time i was over 225 of the 300 points needed, i had given it all back and i was stuck about $30. i was really getting eager to quit or raise my bet, (which i managed to refrain from doing for the experiment). but lucky for me when i finally had the 300 points i was $48 ahead, plus the $7+ cashback and $15+ comps. and then when i did the daily spin, i got screwed royally. got the free gift all 3 spins, so i got no free play and no food vouchers, i usually always get at least 1 of those, sometimes 2. a few times ive even gotten the $50 in freeplay.
still ive managed to prove its possible to gain an edge flat betting the min, but i dont know how id end up long term if i did this everyday. i dont know if ill ever want to go to all the time it takes to flat bet the min ever again, but if i bet $6 per hand instead of $3 to cut the time in half i might run into heavy negative variance, because at one point i was up $150 thereabouts and its possible i couldve been down that instead. i am surprised the variance was still fluctuating so much, and i need a math professor like axb001 on avp to help explain this. flat betting sure takes the fun out of playing, even if it does eliminate a little of the dreadful variance that could easily break me into. i dont think id have made it to the end had i been starting out running really bad, i mightve not been able to maintain my discipline for the test. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
axb, i need ur math skills to comment in my blog, on binions and their daily promotions.
You do not need a math professor to explain variance to you Tony. It would be pointless to discuss math in high level terms such as a math professor would use when you never attended any post-highschool education of any sort.
You can attempt to limit variance but in actuality it all comes down to whether you get lucky or not. Any theoretical 101.5% payback machine of whatever sort is a percentage based on long term timeframes (over ten years for example as a VBJ pro earning a living) but in any given session you are deluding yourself if you expect a 101.5% payback on every session (which I believe you already proved to be false at TLC).
Consider the following scenario....
If you flipped a coin 19 times a minute 24 hours a day for 365 days you would have flipped that coin almost 10 million times (9,986,400) in one year. In ten million trials the heads versus tails will be very, very close to 50/50. But...
During those ten million trials you may have had one minute of extreme variance where heads was the result 19 times in a row. Some math professor could tell us how many standard deviations that would be from the norm but it could in fact happen any of the 525,600 minutes in that one year of flipping a coin 19 times a minute every minute 24 hours a day for 365 straight days.
There is no scheme to protect yourself from betting tails when heads comes up 19 times in a row. It simply can happen at any point in time. At the end of the year the heads/tails count will still be very, very close to 50/50. But for that one minute of extreme variance there is nothing you can do to control it in any significant manner. Meaning your attempts to minimize variance in a VBJ session are utterly futile.
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