Counting VBJ - I think it can be done!

apollo · **Joined:** Mon May 19, 2008 3:11 pm **Posts:** 980

And one more tweet:

Quote:

Out another 1600 vbj 7:29am Aug 10

-$3200 out of $15K in <20 hours. Impressive. It's a shame nobody could have foreseen this might happen; if only someone had a crystal ball! Guess he just couldn't wait until Monday to try to recoup his loses on a 101% machine.

And that's really the big problem with Tony's plan, I think. If he's right, and the machine will pay 101%, and he actually can play perfect basic strategy, then grinding along on the machine for hour after hour with the same size bet is a way to make money over the long term. But there will be variance, and if you try to martingale the machine (and that's the ONLY way Tony seems to be able to play) the variance will dominate the +EV. On any given deal, 99% vs 101% doesn't matter much, and if you have $800 bet once or twice a week trying to recoup loses, that extra 2%, while nice, isn't going to keep you from losing $800 in one spin.

We also don't really know whether Tony does basic strategy correctly 100% of the time. If he ever gives in to hunches or makes an honest mistake, that 101% will quickly dissipate without even leaving a puff of smoke to show the error.

Tatude · **Posted:** Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:31 am

Tatude wrote:

Tony have you lost your mind. I hope someone collects the bounty to save you from yourself. How many times are you gonna get burned by these machines. I hope you don't go thru with this but it will make good reading if u do. Stick to poker u just might break 20k by the end of the year.

If u wanna know how this will turn out just read your tweets from a month or so ago. It won't turn out well.

Hate to say this but told u this would happen. Easy come easy go. Take weeks to make 3k piss it away in a day. Sure path back to sleeping in the streets.

apollo · **Joined:** Mon May 19, 2008 3:11 pm **Posts:** 980

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7228424n is the 60 Minutes segment which ran this weekend on the topic of gambling addiction. I found it a little too "slot machines are evil and too accessible" and not enough "people need to be responsible for their own behavior", but I thought of TBC as I watched it.

Zin · **Posted:** Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:10 am

I personally do not believe in addiction, adults know what they are doing and choose what to do. If a game is in the casino it cannot be beat in the long run. With the only exception being poker.

Tatude · **Posted:** Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:23 am

Addictions can be bear to deal with. I got caught up in daytrading. Lost pretty big and knew what I was doing wrong but kept making the same mistakes ie trading on fear. Should have just under a mil in accounts. Bought all the right stocks sold at all the wrong times. Had the self control of TBC. Finally had to just walk away and never do it again.

People get addicted to the rush if winning or thinking they will win then go nuts trying to chase losses. It can be overcome but u usually have to totally stay away from it. I only play poker in Vegas. Everyone thinks I'm some crazy gambler since I'm there all the time but I put maybe 100 or less in machines on a trip. Mainly to keep my comps active. Never touch the dice or anything else. Don't want to risk getting hooked.

Zin · **Posted:** Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:34 am

Its all about will power tatude, greed is what kills 99% of gamblers.

Pokerdogg · **Joined:** Wed Apr 15, 2009 9:12 pm **Posts:** 3175

Zin wrote:

I personally do not believe in addiction, adults know what they are doing and choose what to do. If a game is in the casino it cannot be beat in the long run. With the only exception being poker.

Addiction is a real and powerful force. Those who are not prone to addiction (due to different brain physiology and chemical makeup) may find it hard to believe or understand, but it does not make it any less so. You may think it is all about will power. Well, some people only need a tiny bit of will power to overcome the addictive power of gambling, some people need a huge amount. Some people don't even need any will power because they don't like gambling.

Millions of people are addicted to gambling, to just say they lack the will power to control themselves is a gross simplication of the problem.

Zin wrote:

Its all about will power tatude, greed is what kills 99% of gamblers.

It is not just greed. Gambling works on many different levels, not the least of all, is the constant action-reward stimulus nature of the activity. The reward happens in indeterminate interval, which is one of the thing that makes it so addictive.

DanielNegreanu_fan · **Joined:** Wed Feb 24, 2010 10:05 am **Posts:** 197

Zin wrote:

I personally do not believe in addiction, adults know what they are doing and choose what to do...

Well everyone is entitled to their opinion but I disagree with this one....a lot.

Just because you can "treat" an addiction and make it "disappear" does not make it less real. I can "treat" a broken leg or an infectious disease and heal from it but the broken leg or disease most certainly existed.

Tucson Jim · **Joined:** Mon Oct 09, 2006 4:18 pm **Posts:** 613

i've heard the 'experts' say the trigger in your brain that gets tripped by gambling is the same one that gets tripped by drugs and alcohol, only gambling is harder to quit and has a higher rate of suicide.

If you can't limit your losses then you will eventually succumb to the mathmatical edge built into the games and lose everything.

sevencard2003 · **Posted:** Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:46 am

Won $660 and learned something im not supposed to know from a shufflemaster employee this morning. The shuffle takes place when u hear the loud thud. No wonder my counts have been wrong and now they will never be wrong again because i will always know the exact amount of the count which should help alot

Counting VBJ - I think it can be done!

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