Problem Solving
 
I was part of this hand, but as opposed to telling you all exactly who and what I was holding I am going to steal a trick from one of our other AVPers and describe the hand as it would have been observed by someone not in the hand.
 
The reason for this is I want to get a feeling of what you all think each villain (V3 and V4) is holding, or likely holding.  Depending on that range, what is your evaluation of their play through each iteration?  I will post questions after each phase to be more specific.
 
Table History:  Main table, half of the players have been playing with each other past 2-3 hours, other half have recently moved in within past hour
 
V1:  SB, 500 chip stack.  Older gentlemen, a regular, who will call loosely preflop if stacks are deep, might often times float a flop bet to what he thinks is a C-Bet.  Overall, a pretty good player, but I have not had enough hours played with him to really get a good grasp on his thinking level.
 
V2:  UTG+2.  150 chip stack.  Younger guy who is not that good, will often just play until his stack runs out, playing short stacked for a majority of the time.  Capable of making bluffs at the right times, as he has shown some of those.  However when he did it he only had 35-40BB in his stack that he was risking.
 
V3:  UTG +3. Has 800 in front.  Reportedly has been playing for past 3 hours.  Has won some recent hands on the river after making sizable raises or bets and gotten his opponents to fold, and he did not show his hand.  He looks like he might be a regular, but it is uncertain.  He does not necessarily have the image of LAG, but is not playing tight pre flop either.
 
V4:  BTN, 220 chip stack.  Just sat down after being moved from another table (past 30 minutes).  He is a relatively complete unknown to the table, and has not been involved in any hands.  The above information on each villain has been observed by V4 in past 30 minutes, so he is aware of what the rest of us are aware of right now.
 
On to the Hand:
 
-Folds to UTG + 2, who calls
-V3 calls
-V4 raises to 16.
-V1, V2, and V3 all call (Pot is 64)
 
-Flop is
-V1 checks, V2 checks, V3 checks
-V4 bets $35 (remaining stack size is 169)
-V1 folds, V2 folds,
-V3 makes it $100 (65$ more to V4)
-V4 thinks for a while silently.  Looks at his cards again, slowly counts his chips, thinks, calls (has 104$ left in V4 remaining stack, pot is )
 
Flop Play Questions:
 
What is range of V4’s hands here. In other words, how does V4’s hand “appear” to V3? Yes this is difficult given he is relatively unknown.  But assuming he is a semi thinking player, can we discount a flopped set due to V4 not shoving all in here and just flatting? KJos with one spade? JJ, QQ with spade? AQ with top two pair? Flopped set?

Likewise, what is range of V3’s hands here?  Two pair?  Sets? Air? High flush draw with mid pair (KsQd) How does V3’s hand “appear” to V4, given the behavior?
 
 
-Turn is , pairing the board
 
Turn Questions:
 
If V3 checks, what is V4 likely to do given the range of hands we have already put him on?  I.e., check back if on a draw?, Bet if he feels he has the winning hand? What does he do with a turned boat?

If V3 bets and puts V4 all in, what does V4 have to have in order to justify the call?  

If V3 checks, in what way does that narrow his range to V4?  What hands can we eliminate from his range given the check?

Likewise, if V3 bets, does that keep his range just as wide or narrow it at all?
 
 
Hopefully some of you find this useful.  I know it is not as simple as our usual posts, but I think there might be some good lessons learned here (particularly for me, but hopefully for some of you too! ).
 
Depending on the depths of responses that follow I will either keep this line of post going, or just tell you the results.  Its up to you guys.
 
Thanks, Happy Friday!

see comments in RED

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V4 = NOT a set, two pair, AKs, mini flush. (so like KKs, JJs, KJs, QJs, KsXs)
V3 = everything in V4's range, PLUS the exclusions above.

Turn:
V4 checks back non-made hands, bets the high flush.
V4 can call a jam pretty wide because the pot is big and V3 has a decent amount of non-made hands.
A check from V3 eliminates mini flush imo. A bet doesn't mean much in narrowing.

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I agree with the previous posters. on most of what they said

V4 I'm puting him on AKs, KKs, AA, QQ, or AQ
V3 I'm putting him on a mini flush, KQs, QJs, AQ, 55, Js10s, and possibly A5 suited.

Turn:
if V3 checks he's only getting shoved on if V4 has a boat. If I'm V4 I think that V3 doesn't have a boat if checked. However, I still don't see V4 betting with anything less than a boat.

If V3 bets we keep his range the same and V4 calls most of the time, I can see V4 folding AQ but playing the other hands in his range.

update on what the outcome was?

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Turn:

-V3 checks
-V4 thinks for not to long at all, checks
-River is


Questions:

Given everything we now know up to this point…

-What is our range of hands for V3?

-What is our range of hands now for V4?

-If we are V3 at this point, what are we shoving with, what are we checking with (that is still in our range)

-If we are V4 at this point, what are we calling our remaining 104$ stack with if V3 shoves (hands that remain in range)

-If we are V4, what are we going fold if V3 shoves (Again, that remain in our range)

-If we are V4, what are we going to bet if V3 checks to us (this is an easier one I think )

I'm back on the flop. What the heck does V4 bet-call with on the flop? He's relatively short-stacked at that point, and basically pot committed. He probably has some small fold equity, and he should never fold the turn or river, so why not make sure he gets paid in full for when he wins? If V3 has a baby flush, there are a lot of scary turn and river cards that might let him get away.

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This in spades.

Pot is about $200, it costs V4 $65 to call, and V4 has $165 behind. If V4 has a baby flush, he has to ship it all in and make V3 pay full freight to draw. If V4 ships, the pot is $365 and V3 needs $100 to call, so V3 isn't folding any made hand or any nut draw, so I think V4's fold equity is essentially zero. The only way V3 folds if he was stone cold bluffing, which isn't a smart play with 4 players in the pot and that board.

Since V3 just called the raise, he can't have a set or a made flush, his hand has to be the nut flush draw or a pair and the nut flush draw and doesn't want to commit the last $100, which IMO is a mistake since you want to be paid in full in you hit.

Results:

-V3 checks quickly
-V4 thinks for not to long at all, checks
-River is

-V3 thinks for a moment, goes all in
-V4, thinks for what is a very long time, almost as long as the time it took him to call the flop check raise, and then calls. V4 doesn’t even wait for V3 to show, looks at him and then turns over his cards. V3, perplexed at what all the consideration was over, mucks.



My Thoughts:

I was V3

Preflop: I had something like 78s, was trying to catch something. I had complete air the whole time.

Flop:

On the flop play I was trying to rep A5s or AQ, or a flopped set of fives would have likely raised originally with QQ or AA, so that is out of my range). I thought my bet was big enough to push him away. I was upset that he called. @ FightingIL, you mentioned that there were 4 players in this pot. There weren’t at the time of the check raise, as villains 1 and 2 had folded to V4’s C-Bet.

Turn:

My issue is with the Turn play, and I look at it two ways:

1: If I had known that he had , should I have shoved the turn and would that have pushed him off? Given that I now can discount his credibility as a strong player (thought for a long time to call with boat of Aces over Queens, and instantly showed his hand without even wanting to “learn” what I had even though I would have had to show first or muck) I am leaning to the conclusion that a turn shove would have been the right move given the line I took. This is another example of how these very dangerous lines of bluffing with air OUT OF POSITION should rarely be taken, and if taken should be against villains who hero has a good read on.

2: Depending on the range we can deduce from him flatting my flop check raise, should I have shoved the turn? IMO, his range is higher pocket pair with one spade, two pair of AQ, possibly full house of fives over aces (unlikely for him to raise 16 pre with A5s though IMO), KsJx for gut shot str8 draw and nut flush draw, KsQx for mid pair with flush draw, or dreaded a flopped set that could have just turned a boat (queens or Aces) Of course he could also have nut flush, but I’m thinking that most people are not going to bet a nut flush after flopping it. Or perhaps a baby flush, but again I think a flopped baby flush is going to go allin on the check raise in order to make villain pay for the draw. So…with that range, if I lead into him he is probably going to fold anything other than a draw, or a turned full house, right?

Again, this is where I’m a little confused and second guessing myself. If I had led turn I think a lot of the “likely” hands in his range are going to fold. That said, my raise on flop was because I thought he was C-Betting and that I could push him off. With him just flatting me, I for the most part gave up on the hand. I assumed he was strong and going to bet the turn and I would just fold.

River:

After his check, which surprised me, I intended to shove any non spade that fell on river, including anything that paired the board.

For me, I this check narrowed his range down to a draw with a pp, a missed draw o fany kind, but something weak all together. or a turned full house. I think the turned boat is unlikely because I think he is raising me allin on the flop if he had flopped a set. So I think the range of hands I can represent here by shoving are greater than the range of hands he can have that can beat mine. Furthermore, I think his flatting the flop and checking behind on the turn was a mistake, pretty much regardless of what hands he had. As other posters have mentioned, if he was going to call the check raise on the flop, he should have gotten it all in right then and there and pushed allin. So for all those reasons, I shoved.


A Lesson Learned:

A friend of mine tells me I get in too many of these “tough” situations. I’m working on it…

I think a hand like this to play it right just comes with some maturity at the game, hours played, etc. The play “felt” right at the time, but it is not a good standard practice to bluff with air out of position on Flop and River against a villain with practically no real read on. High Risk, High Reward might be OK in a much tougher game, but why risk things like this at low limit when eventually you are going to find better opportunities to take money from weaker players? This hand reps exactly that point…

You sound like a friend I have that would have made the exact same play. I tell him he shouldn't force action and just let the opportunities present themselves instead. Sometimes its better to focus on your read on the opponent and their style of play before attempting a play like this. Also you have to be aware of your own table image at the current moment and whether or not the play is even believable.

Its also good to practice things out of your comfort zone though because that is the only way that it will become "comfortable" in the future. May not work at first, but eventually the practice will pay off. big

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"Life is like poker, Eventually you are dealt a new hand"