Background: I'm mostly a limit and no limit tournament player. I've gone from being terrible to being a decent limit player and a decent low stakes tourney player. My 2 biggest problems currently are that I'm still not aggressive enough and that I don't trust my reads enough to follow through with aggression when I sense weakness. The closest casino to me currently is about 90 miles away and rarely gets limit games going. So, since I've always sucked at no limit cash games and wanted to improve that part of my poker game, I have been playing a bit of $1-3 no limit there.

The Villain: Villain is someone who I'm fairly sure I've played with before but not sure where (maybe local charity tourney, maybe another casino, but not at this casino recently). I read him as a pretty good player, but someone who likes to be the center of attention. He can be talkative and will tend to be aggressive, but not internet-kid-maniac hyper-aggressive. I would say that the villain's read on me -- assuming he's bothered to make one, he has been chatting it up a lot and I haven't played a lot of pots in the couple hours we've been at the table -- is that I'm fairly tight and basically an ABC player.

The Hand: I have A-A under the gun and raise to $15. Villain calls from middle position (pot about $30 after rake).

Flop is - - .

I fire $25 at the pot and villain calls (pot just under $80 with rake). At this point, I put him on A-K or K-Q.

Turn is .

I hate it, but it doesn't look like villain loves it and I have the ace of clubs, so I decide against this villain, I need to keep the lead. I fire $60 (which normally might be a good bet size, but in this case was stupid because I only had $62 left behind). Villain tanks and talks about hand out loud, he mentions that the turn gives him a lot of outs and that he hates to pay me off because my hand "smells like exactly A-K." Given that statement, combined with the fact that he really did seem to be agonizing about the decision and that he had looked at my stack and should have realized that I was pretty pot-committed if he raised me, I don't put him on a K and certainly not K-Q. So, I think his most likely holdings are something like a Q with the or .

River is another K.

At this point, I am fairly confident I have the best hand and while I don't love it, I decide if I'm going broke here, then it's because I am firing. So, I push my last $62 in.

What do you think? Please feel free to comment on my play, bet sizing and reads at any stage of the hand as well as answering the poll question.

Thanks!

Dave

_________________
The opinions in this post are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Poker Atlas, AVP or PokerTrip Enterprises.

I am thinking that I am shoving on the turn. You got $120 and there is $80 in the pot. Why eff around? Get it in while you are good. Also, with the draw heavy flop, I might bet a bit more on the flop. If a $30 pot, then I bet $30-$35 to see where I am in the hand. Then on the turn, you are shoving about $110 in to a $90-ish pot.

The turn is a little awkward because of the stack sizes. A turn shove offers V less than 2-1, so the real question is whether V can call that much with a worse hand. As an example, do you think V calls. Turn shove with AK? If he won't then are there any other hands that you are ahead of that he could call with? If you can't give V a range of worse hands that he can call a shove with, then a shove can never be a value bet, so by definition, the only reason for betting the turn is as a bluff or to "protect your hand".

The reason to bluff is to get a better hand to fold. What better hands will V fold if you shove? Again, as an example, would V fold KQ if you shove the turn?

Another awkward effect of the stack to pot ratio on the turn is that you are teetering on the edge of being pot committed. If the positions were reversed and V shoved into you on the turn, I think the odds would let you find a fold if you wanted getting less than 2-1. Once you put in any reasonable turn bet though, it becomes much more difficult to fold. If V had shoved over top of your turn bet you would be getting over 4-1 to call and I think would have to call with the overpaid and the nut club. So, when you put that $60 in on the turn, had you thought through what you would do if V shoved. I think that bet mathematically committed you, but we're you committed in your heart?

Another thought that occurred to me relates to your ranges. After the flop, you said you put V on AK or KQ. Then after the turn, your range for V is a Q with the J or T of clubs. I think it's absolutely critical to keep your refining your view of Vs range as the hand progresses. Notice though that on the turn you have V on hands that weren't even in the range you put him on after the flop. To me that's suggestive of a very common issue which is coming up with incomplete ranges for our Vs. is within Vs range based on what you wrote after he called your turn bet, but would he have called your preflop raise with QTos? What about your flop bet? Would he have called that with no overcards and only back door straight and flush draws? Is this V capable of just flat out floating the flop? And why is it that AK and KQ are no longer in his range?

To me ranging works best when you come up with the full range V could have and then eliminate hands from the range after you get more info. In my opinion, V's range after he calls the flop is going to include all his hands with a K, all his hands with an 8, pocket pairs from 99 possibly up to QQ (depending on where his 3 bet line is preflop) and all his suited hands with clubs (note that you holding the and the board having the and the eliminates a lot of those types of hands). From there you just drop hands from his range as you get more information. I haven't taken the time to go through and do the full ranging, but my sense is the turn was a very bad card.

_________________
@missingflops on Twitter

river is a worse card than the turn. you say you hate the turn but it really isnt that bad for you. it's not great, but you aren't that deep. you got felted by KxJc, and you're upset, but you played the hand perfectly.

preflop: why didnt you straddle? ... 15, sure nothing wrong with that in a 1/3 game.

flop: you bet 85% of the pot, nothing wrong with that. there's no reason to SPAZ and overbet the pot, then you don't get calls when you want them.

turn: why shove? better hands SNAP call you (KQ, made flush, sets, two pair) and worse hands HAVE to fold. shoving is awful. considering the situation (WA/WB...SB?), you're getting owned if he's way ahead either way (check/bet), but you have to bet because you can't afford to be bluffed off your hand everytime this situation arises (huge leak). if you're ahead and you give him a free river, there goes a ton of your value. what does this mean? bet, just as you did. i don't mind 55 (why the small distinction? i generally do not like betting more than twice i did the street before heads up because it can set off alarm bells).

river: again, can you check here? no. at this point you are committed and there is nothing wrong with that, you had a strong hand on the turn IMO. if you check, you get owned because a worse hand behind almost always checks (look at that nasty board) and a better hand (Kx and made flush) almost always shoves. but what about something like 99 with a club; after that K comes out, its an easy call for him if he's come this far. so since you aren't folding ever, and he's almost always shoving better hands, you may as well get value from his worse hands and shove yourself.

nh. dont sweat it.

_________________
"I would rather make the gravest of mistakes than surrender my own judgment. "

So Hero started with $162, or 54 big blinds. So he has a short stack. When he bets $15 UTG and gets a caller, the pot is $30 and Hero has $147 behind, for an SPR of 4.9.......this is an awkward position, since it's tough to get it all in by the turn, as evidenced by this hand.

Hero is in a really tough spot here. The pot is $80, Hero has $122 behind. So if Hero shoves, he's getting about 1.6 to 1 odds on his bet. Question is, is shoving profitable? To answer, we need to construct V's range and what V will likely respond to a shove by Hero.

On the flop Hero bet $25 and V calls. Here is V's likely range
AK/KQ/KJ,JJ,TT,99, Flush draw, set of 8s or 2s.

Let's say the distribution of hands is this...which I think is reasonable.

AK 13%, KQ 16%, KJ 16%, JJ-99 10%, Flush draw 35%, set 10%.

Now say V will never fold a hand that beats Hero now and folds any hand that is behind Hero......this will be slightly conservative, but pretty close.

Using these assumptions, here are the expected profit for each potential hand V holds. Either V folds and Hero wins the current pot - $80, V calls and Hero wins $202, or V calls and Hero loses $122.
AK $80, KQ -$18, KJ $80, Med Pair $80, Flush -$77, set -$51.

Multiply the likelihood of each hand and the total expected profit is about -$4. But if you factor in a small chance of V calling with AK, V folding KQ, or if V floated the flop with no hand with intention of stealing on the turn, this situation probably has very small positive EV, making this situation very marginal.

Given the actual hand, I wouldn't fault anyone for shoving or check-folding in this spot. This spot is that tough. If you can handle the variance, I lean towards shoving, since I want to be seen as an action player. But personally I woudn't have been in this situation because I would have played it differently.

Now back to the SPR issue. Hero is playing 54 BB and needs to figure out how to get it all in by at least the turn with AA. I think he has two options

1) Limp and reraise. This is the best option to get it all in preflop or the flop, but at a risk of playing OOP in a limped in multiway pot. If the table is very aggressive, I like the limp reraise from early position. Say Hero limped for $3, someone raises to $15 and gets a caller...action on Hero.....Hero raises to $60. If he gets a caller, then the pot is $135 and Hero has $102 behind....he shoves almost all flops.

2) Bet more preflop - I would raise to $20. In this case if you get the same V calling, the pot is $40. Hero bets $35 on the flop and gets a call. Now the pot is $110 and V has $107 behind. He now makes a pot size shove which would be a positive EV play.

I think Hero could have spaced his bets out better to make his decisions easier, but heads up and with 54 BB he's looking to get it in by the turn, or preferably the flop or preflop.

This actually isn't a draw heavy flop at all. It's pretty dry albeit the flush draw. The absence of any straight draw makes it a relatively dry board. I'm perfectly fine as played but I honestly expect to lose on the river a lot. I think your idea of his range being a queen with a club is kinda off. I mean why would he call the flop of K82cc with Q-X with one club. I think his range pretty much consists of hands like K-J with the Jc and K-T with the Tc. On the river you should check but mostly call off the last $60 just because of odds, but if you really know your player and know they would never bluff then you can actually fold for the last $60 in your stack. Also, some players who have a hand like K-T may just check back because sometimes lower limit players see monsters under the bed and fear you're checking a flush or something, or even checking A-K which they still lose to.
All in all I'm fine with your play, but check/call the river and rebuy. Also when evaluating a hand try to think what range your opponent has not based on the turn action but start the story with the flop. For instance, if you have A-A on a A-9-2 rainbow flop and the board runs out with a 7 on the turn and an 8 on the river, while J-T is the absolute nuts you still have the relative nuts because no one should have called your flop bet with J-T.

_________________
Follow me on Twitter (@BentonBlakeman)
http://www.twitter.com/BentonBlakeman

While in principle this is right, I think this hand is an exception to the above rule. In this spot I don't see a worse hand EVER calling or a better hand EVER folding, which means a check to either induce (unlikely) or hope a better hand than yours checks behind and saves you $60 is best in my opinion.

_________________
Follow me on Twitter (@BentonBlakeman)
http://www.twitter.com/BentonBlakeman

Can we consider the possibility of check/shoving the turn? We've read V as being somewhat aggressive and probably viewing us as ABC. Anyone think a check on the turn induces a bet from a worse hand which then has a much better likelihood of calling for our whole stack due to pot odds?

That's about the only way I can figure to get it all in on the turn against a worse hand given the preflop and flop action as played. Of course, a fair amount of the time that you do that you're going to be getting it in against a hand you are way behind to which sucks, but you do have the redraw and I think that line actually gives you some chance of sucking in a worse hand.

_________________
@missingflops on Twitter

I think a check/shove on the turn is a possibility but only because we have the Ace of clubs. I use this line with this kind of hand sometimes. I will do it in spots where I feel like I still have a good chance of getting all the money in or if I think i am way ahead or way behind and want to make sure I get at least another street of value.

So others may disagree but I will sometimes check this turn knowing another club will not hurt (and prob helps me).

Per Benton, I agree about check/calling the river due to Villain's range. Hard to spot that real time but I agree.

_________________
- pls excuse my typos... I'm prob on my iPhone

Play online with me, check out my other blog: http://vookenmeister.blogspot.com

On the turn, I actually like a smaller bet, or check-raise. If villain shoves the turn, I will call with the nut flush out, and also possible counterfit outs against KQ.

As played, 100% check the river, and call a river bet most of the time. You will never force villain to fold a hand that beats you on the river, but some hands that beats you may check down (trip K), and an aggressive villain may try to bluff you. Your hand is still worthy as a bluff catcher.