In a sense this is impossible for us to answer because ultimately this is read dependent. It's easy to say what you should do at a typical table in Vegas or even a random table where you play occasionally. But against regulars playing each other, this depends on:
1) Is V capable of third or fourth level thinking? which ties closely to
2) What range would/should V put you on when you 4-bet to $73?

For pure hand strength, your 4-bet makes sense with AA/KK. You don't want to play a 3-way pot for only $28 with those hands. Unless you believe V is 3-betting light/wide, 4-betting JJ, QQ, and AK is effectively a bluff. And this is what the end decision comes down to. How much weight to V give to metagame/bluffing in this spot? If he views your range as AA/KK or AA/KK/QQ he has to have AA/KK to shove.

3) Does V believe you will fold anything other than AA if he shoves?

I fold KK here because I don't see players who will 4-bet with less than AA/KK much less 5-bet 150 BB with less than AA/KK.


I think this line of thinking -- I wouldn't play a hand that way (both strategically and process) so I assume V wouldn't play a hand that way -- is a big leak for a lot of players. They stack off against a flopped set and the berate (not necessarily aloud) V for not raising on a dangerous flop.

To the specific hand, one commenter already pointed out that shoving AA may not be the best EV play. For sure insta-shoving turns your hand face up. Both Hollywooding and serious thought about whether to smooth call make sense for hesitating. And not having AA makes sense as well.

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Against most 1/2 opponents, if you want the bedt EV play, your money better get in the middle preflop. You need a near-certain read of AA to even think about a fold.

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One, I don't like the raise to only $73 with two players behind who have already shown they like their hands (maybe the CO is making a move, but UTG should like his hand if he's calling $28). There's $83 in the pot, and you've got four players to get through - now is not the time for a slightly smaller than pot sized bet. If you get one caller in front of CO, he's priced in even if it was a move, and UTG seems likely to call even without that, since he already called a 3bet despite being very short (turns out he didn't, but still seems a distinct possibility - I have to wonder what he had that was worth committing almost 20% of his stack but wasn't worth going all-in).

I like something 1.25-1.5 pot sized (i.e., $100-125) more - if CO's making a move with decent cards (since a move with air against an EP raise is sketchy itself), it's easier for him to get away from, if not, it's more likely to scare out the other two, and you obviously want to isolate here. CO's already looking at UTG's stack and probably thinking that money's 50% on it's way in already - we don't want to make it easier on him.

As for the fold, unless my opponent is the nittiest rock to every rock nits, I'm not folding. Especially if he's a good player, he could have been making a move the first time and be reading you for pushing back against a perceived move the second time. The assumption that UTG's money is incoming makes that a bit less likely, but UTG's call is hard to read either way (if he's really strong, why just call, if he's weaker, why play at all - the more I think about it, the more UTG is annoying me; limp, call 3bet, fold? Wtf?)



Unless I'm having a stroke, that's not even close. You're counting the money currently in his stack as money he might win (you've also got hero's bet amounts different than he stated). There's $435 in the pot - $3 in blinds, $16 from the two call & folds of the initial bet, $28 from UTG's call & fold, $73 from Hero, and $315 total from CO (since that's the maximum bet he can make heads up against hero). Hero has $242 behind ($315 - $73), so that's what he needs to call to win $435.



Interestingly, even though your pot calculations are off, this is still about right.

He's getting about 1.8:1 on his money, not 2.7-1, but he only needs around 4.5:1 to call if he's sure of AA (since KK v. AA ranges from 4.3:1-4.8:1 depending on suit) not 5-1. If it were possible to precisely quantify a read, he needs to be 45% sure of AA, assuming we split the rest of his range equally between AK and a lower pair (which are all essentially equal).

Also interestingly, other than having AA, villain's actually better off with the hand he had than either AK or QQ-22.

UTG folded 10's. He is pretty tight and very passsive. I was confident he was folding to my raise and the players between myself and the CO would never call a 4Bet with the 3Bet player to act behind them.

Thanks for the input everyone...I still believe finding folds in 1/2NL is +EV more than finding calls. Prior history with this thinking player is the only reason I adjusted from this belief. Even the wildest, loosest player in this game has a 1 to 2-hand 5Bet range in this game.

One of the better players in this game is break even or a slight loser because he can't find his fold button. Always believing every player is capable of a move...only to be shown the nuts or near it each time. Players are so bad that they will get infinite BB in a pot almost drawing dead. Folding marginal spots are almost always +EV in this simple game. If the players were better...playing more marginal situations would be a necessity.

I'll be in Vegas Jan27-Feb1...playing Venetian DS on 27th and likely cash at Venetian, Bellagio and Mirage the rest of the time.

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KK preflop is never a "marginal spot". Folding KK preflop at this level is almost certainly hugely -EV. Every nit I know uses that rep to steal big pots preflop on occasion. If you fold KK preflop and it's a good fold, it can only be because you have such a great read that posting here is irrelevant.

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last time i folded KK preflop i would have ended up with QUAD K's but u had a smart read.

I think you need to 4bet much larger, like $120. This way you commit yourself and the decision to call a shove is easy. Why put yourself in a tough spot?

From villain's perspective, you 4bet so small that he is thinking you either have:
1. AA, trying to induce a shove
2. a hand that can't profitably call a 3bet multiway OOP
3. a premo hand you're capable of folding

Considering he has an ace blocker, 1 is unlikely. You'll instamuck 2 and you've already shown 3 is possible.

In fact, if your preflop opens are getting multiple callers from this table you should be opening larger, to $10 or $12. But I don't think it's a big of a leak as your 4bet sizing.

Your pot sized bet calculations are incorrect and I see this all the time. After UTG's limp/call you're right about the pot size when it gets to you, $83. However a PSB includes Hero's previous bet and current call (8+20) plus the size of the pot after the call (103). So a PSB = 131. Hero's 4bet is only slightly more than half pot!

The easiest way to figure this out is 3x the raise plus add the "trail" (action in current betting round) and the starting pot (pot in previous betting round.) So 3 x 28 + 28 + 1 + 2 + 8 + 8 = 131. The trail does not include the dead money that YOU already have in the pot (i.e. your $8 raise.)

Doh, I knew the amount I wanted to bet (125-ish), but I do pot sized raises wrong when talking about them. I've made the mistake at the table as well, even though I know how and when I make it.

a few things that make me think no AA...

1. your history you mentioned folding face up KK to him, hes got to think he can get you off about anything

2. his hesitation on the 5 bet, while this isnt always reliable, at the average low stakes table it can be seen as face value...

3. the shove, i would worry more about AA if he sized the raise smaller than a shove here, assuming he was deep enough to do so.

4. as somone mentioned, at these stakes the whole confidence thing is ususally a standard crappy level...=weak or unsure.

5. either way given the positions and dynamics i think it is a call at these stakes and depth...i mean random player shows up here with less than AA here just enough to make this call i think...the rest of the time...bink a king

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