I can't believe I'm bringing up a TBC hand, but it made me think about pot equity. I have a general understanding of it, and I know I have a couple books that discuss it, but I'm too lazy to look it up. Plus, I want to make sure my understanding is correct. Also, I love the discussion on this site, and have learned a lot about poker and my play. I don't want this to turn into a discussion of right or wrong play by TBC. I just want to make sure my math is close to correct, and learn more about pot equity.

TBC had AK vs 1010. There was $62 in the pot before his opponent went all in for $275 preflop. My question is how much equity is he losing by folding? So, here are my pot equity thoughts with my limited pot equity understanding. Please correct my logic wherever I am wrong.

He is a 57/43 dog, which gives him 43% equity. First question I have is, if he folds, is he throwing away $26.66 (.43x62,) or $144.91 (.43x237?) Or, do you have to include his call to determine how much of the pot is his?

Here is where my logic brought me: By calling, he loses $12.24 over the long run. I think I am wrong, but it makes sense to me. Here's how I came to this conclusion:

The total pot, after the call, would be $612. His call was $275, or about 45% of the pot. His chance to win was 43%, so he threw away 2% of the pot, or about $12.

Taking this math out of it, I would never make this call. I would rather wait for a bigger edge over weak opponents. However, I don't care about the merits of call vs fold, but I am interested in my logic of how much he loses with the call.

Where am I wrong (or right)?

I am no math wiz but it is a coin flip AK vs 1010. Me personally would look for a better spot to shove, i do not like shoving with air.

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Hookem Horns

It really isn't a true coin flip. I thought it was closer than 57/43, but I ran the calculator at card player, and it came up with 57/43. My theory is the reason it is worse than a coin flip is, because it is 1010, it is more difficult to make a straight, one hand that would beat 1010.

Just using your numbers about his odds to win...... here is how to look at this situation. I prefer the term EV to equity for this discussion.

If he calls he has a 43% chance to win $337
and a 57% chance to lose $275

.43 * 337 = 144.91
.57 * -275 = -156.75

the expected value of calling is 144.91 + (-156.75)= -$11.84

You don't factor his own call of $275 into what he is winning.

oops corrected transcription error ...

If he folds he is not throwing away any value. He has no equity in the pot at this point because he is facing a bet you have no equity in the pot until you call the bet.

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OK, that way makes more sense of calculating this hand, even though we came up with about the same amount. Your way is much simpler, and reminds me of how my books that I was too lazy to look up explained this type of poker problem.

Different ways of doing the same math.

One question/correction though. I don't think TBC has to call the whole $275. $62 in the pot sounds like TBC raised to raised to 10 and got 5 callers (or $15 and got 3 callers) then the SB shoved for $275. I have trouble seeing how $62 gets in the pot before the CO acts. I guess with an EP raise to $15, 3 callers and no SB, it would work.

Also this assumes TBC has $275 or more in his stack.

But yeh, the big problem here is that two big cards unsuited vs. a pair isn't really a coin flip.

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