...So why is V who smooth called on the flop and turn suddenly leading out the river? The rational reason is he knows (or strongly suspects) his hand is good and wants to make sure you don't check behind. I suspect QJ or TT. The only hand you can beat is T9 and so many hands beat that it's hard to believe he suddenly feels strong about it.
I think the answer lies in OP's description of villain. He appeared to our hero as an inexperienced, ABC type player that plays his big hands fast, and make weird bet/bluff on the river with marginal/drawing hands. This hand seems to fit this pattern. His line does not fit a flopped nut straight, or even a baby straight. It is possible he played his 10s or 9s this way, but I think he would just call in those cases. It feels more like a J10 type hand making a desperate stab after missing his draw.
I can see the case for just calling his river bet, but folding is out of the question.
Sorry, but I disagree. Hand 1 I raise 100% as villain must call and I think hero is ahead a decent amount (if not always). As for hand 2, I can't see villain on 5 8 so it's never a chop for me as I viillain can't call on the flop. The only hands that beat us are sets or quads. I raise for value in this spot.
Hands that tie OP: 45, 55, 56, two diamonds with 5 (most likely A5)
Hands that OP beats: 88-QQ, trips 4s (most likely A4), total air (busted flush draws, 2 big cards, etc., or anything else that villain was going to CR bluff with on the turn)
Anything that beats or tie with OP, he will at least call a river re-raise. Of the hands that OP beats, I don't really see a call from villain (if OP reraise) except trip 4s. He is going to fold all the bluffing hands. With an overpair, most of the time villain is going just call the river bet because it has show down value, and it can't stand the heat of a repop from OP.
IMO, if you reraise the river and villain calls, less than 5% of the time you will have a winning hand. More than 50% of the time you will be beat, and the rest of the time you are chopping. Just call and hope that you are chopping, there is no profit in raising the river here.
On the other hand, if villain donk bet the river, than a raise may be more defendable. Villain may be putting out a blocking bet on the river, don't believe your raise and call with an overpair. His river check-raise polarized his range, which makes a reraise -EV.
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2008 7:52 am Posts: 1184 Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Remember this is a spread limit game, so no such thing as a blocking bet on the river.
Hand 1 - Villain called an all in for essentially the max $100 bet (ok it was $90, but that's essentially max) on the flop, then just called a re-pop to $190; check-called the full $100 on the turn and bet out the full $100 on the river, meaning he is calling the extra $75, it's not a blocking bet but an opening to put in the extra $75. This seems really strong to me. Given the original read that villain is pretty ABC but will bet river on busted draws, I think his range is precisely J-10 or Q-J. I can see calling but given his bet out on the river, I think we are probably slightly worse than 50-50 that it is J-10 for top pair and a busted draw. I can't justify a fold given the pot odds but I just call.
Hand 2 - since you 3 bet preflop and villain thinks he can outplay you, I fully expect to see a flopped set or some boat. Given the speech, I actually lean towards A-4 sooted, for a flopped set of 4s with the villain putting you on an overpair and looking for a check raise on the turn. I agree that raising accomplishes nothing, so flat call the raise.
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with the rainbow board i think i can slow the nuts, but he has to protect a higher set against the coordinated board. i think he is more likely to have the funky j 10 q 10 hands betting as a weird desperation bluff. he has to know he is getting called, strange line. what in the world did he have
Joined: Sat Dec 19, 2009 8:33 pm Posts: 557 Location: Wherever the bed bugs call home
ok, I guess it's not a bad time to put results up, after a few pages of responses:
Hand 1: When he fired $100 on the river i groaned and thought he had J7 or something and finally realized "well, it's all going in anyway." i called getting awesome odds hoping he had 2 pair or a terrible J10 type bluff. He flipped over 910. SB flipped over AA like he was mad at me or something (haha). I don't like how he played his hand, if he puts me on a better hand, he should fold (only 4 outs), and if he thinks he has a better hand, he should've put it in before the river for that last 75/to charge a pair+draw type hand. I guess maybe my sloppy image paid off a little bit, maybe he was thinking "I'll let this guy bluff at it again if he doesn't have it, but I don't feel like raising cuz I'll fold out bluffs and get called by better." I dunno.
Hand 2: When he C/R'd me on the river, I groaned again cuz I thought it was an awesome card for me. Had he bet, I might have raised, but the C/R looked so much stronger to me. I didn't think I could raise because of all the boats out there (esp considering I put him on PP in that range on the flop), even though after the hand I think he may have done the same with 88-1010 type hands and get so frustrated he calls another $100 reraise. I thought his range was more chop, air, boat tho so I decided to just call. I made him flip his hand because he wouldn't at first (see other thread about making opponent flip or muck, heh), and I actually really wanted to see his hand: AK (not two diamonds, might have been one). I actually really like his play: I think my hand looks like AK/AQ a lot here and he can win with that raise if it is. I wish I made more moves like this, especially considering later in the night a certain player was valuetowning me pretty well on nasty boards where I had a pair and thought "he's either got the nuts or a bluff to keep betting/raising me on this board considering the preflop action." I was wrong twice, he was just value betting slightly above avg hands for the action, and had I raised either time, I would've won the pot.
_________________ "I would rather make the gravest of mistakes than surrender my own judgment. "
Joined: Mon Jul 10, 2006 11:16 am Posts: 3912 Location: Manassas, VA
I don't like his play of AK on the river but for a different reason than you think. I think he is better off check/calling your river bet as his hand is a good bluff catcher.
a 6 doesn't really fit your hand. and if you had an overcard pair your prob would've bet turn instead of the river. Your hand is kinda polarized towards overcard hands that shutdown after cbetting and are now trying to steal the pot and very strong hands looking for value. not as many strong hands fit this board that would've checked the turn.
So I think a better play by him is check/call since in my mind you prob would've bet your overpair cards on the turn thus he is beating any hands that are bluffing.
_________________ - pls excuse my typos... I'm prob on my iPhone