Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 7:11 am Posts: 131 Location: Minneapolis
I think your analysis reveals a leak in your game that has come up before: You often give the villain credit for analyzing the situation as carefully as you do. You seem to think people don't do stupid things. WRONG!
Anyway, as to this hand, we don't have have any information about the villain, so this is tough. You have told us, however, that the table has been incredibly loose. Most people would not put in a $330 raise with nothing (although some would), so I think he probably has a set of 2's or 3's. My second guess is 2-3 suited. Next guess: A-x of hearts.
Joined: Fri Mar 30, 2007 1:51 pm Posts: 4070 Location: A Place Called Lee Ho Fuk's
Interesting hand. My guesses are, in order: a) set (all are equally plausible); b) hearts (A-x or 5-6); c) A9.
Were any of those hands well-played by villain? No! But, were they played as an inexperienced NL player might have played them? Sure! The sets, he is greedy on the flop and expects a raise behind him, so he calls and hopes to reraise. Your intervening reraise is just gravy from his point of view, maybe he puts you on an overpair and wants to get the money in now. If he has hearts, he's seen WSOP/WPT players make that fancy "semi-bluff" play, and he figures he can do that, and in fact feels pretty cool doing it. As for A9, well, we've all seen donkeys get married to TPTK.
The thing is, at a wild 1/3NL game, I think you need to allow for inexperienced / wild / unorthodox /suboptimal play in your analysis. You're going to see some wacky stuff, so I think you correctly feared the worst and made a good fold. My personal rule of thumb for small NLHE games: When confused about how a hand has been played, it's generally best to fold.
_________________ "I am become Death, destroyer of Aces, slayer of Kings, tilter of D-Bags."
I am not an expert by any means, but if table is playing very loose. Not knowing his betting patterns, I could see him having KK or AA knowing it will get raised around to him. The pot got big and he made his move.??
Joined: Wed Apr 18, 2007 1:59 am Posts: 4402 Location: Some Place You've Never Heard
A little later he straddled for 6, LP makes it 30, I make it 100 with kings, he asks how big my pair is and after I replied "The one in my pants?" He then moved all in for $450. Other guy pushes for $200 and I think for a minute before realizing that if he has aces, I'll pay him off. He had 99. He also busted 5-6 times from the table for about $1500. Like I said, it was a nice night.
_________________ [quote="Clem2754"]I guess I will owe you some money[/quote]